Development, Testing and Application of ACRE: An Agro-Economic Production Model on Regional Level

ACRE is an Agro-eConomic model for agricultural pRoduction on rEgional level. Based on an extension of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) this model was developed as a decision tool for politics with respect to questions of global change scenarios. The validity of the theoretical approach as well as the algorithms has been tested by calculations with empirical data. Currently, ACRE is applied in large interdisciplinary projects. This paper introduces the development of ACRE, from the theoretical framework to testing its validity and current application.mathematical programming, variant-activity, regional model, agricultural production model, interdisciplinary projects, Agribusiness, C61, Q15, E23, Q21,

MANAGEMENT DECISIONS ON FARM-LEVEL AND THEIR LINK TO WEATHER REQUIREMENTS: A CASE STUDY FOR THE UPPER DANUBE RIVER BASIN

It is undeniable that the global warming has already affected the Earth’s biota, whereby the rise of air temperature is an important factor. Agricultural systems are also affected by climate change via the interrelated biophysical layers. Climate influences farmers` decisions in crop management. To simulate the interactions between climate/weather and the different crop management activities an agent based modelling approach is used, in which farmers` decision making is based on crop requirements from literature. To validate these decision algorithms on how farmers arrange their daily crop management decisions like planting, fertilizing, and harvesting due to changes of climate parameters, a statistical analysis of empirical data (1970-2003) on temperature and different crop growth stages, which represent different management activities, was carried out. Results show that every crop has to be considered separately and the requirements of the different crops on temperature have to be observed in different ways. There are crops which have a low germination temperature, for those the average daily temperature shows no relation with the planting day. In this case the temperature sum in a specific period is more precise. On the opposite side crops with a high germination temperature show significant correlation results with the average daily temperature of a period before the planting day.Crop management, heuristic decisions, regional climate change, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management,

The influence of climate change, technological progress and political change on agricultural land use: calculated scenarios for the Upper Danube catchment area

Both climate and agricultural policy changes are commonly seen as important drivers for agricultural production. In this study, scenarios of climate and political change were calculated for the Upper Danube catchment area using the regional optimization model ACRE. Two political scenarios were calculated for the year 2020. One scenario assumes the continuation of the Common Agricultural Policy reform 2003 the other assumes a strong shift away from payments of the first pillar to payments of the second pillar of the CAP. Both scenarios were combined with four different scenarios of climate change and technological progress derived from ICCP SRES assumptions and the ACCELERATES project. The results of the scenario calculations were analysed with respect to their implications for the whole catchment area as well as for selected districts. Climate change and technological progress both cause small changes in agricultural land use: fodder crop area tends to be converted to cash crop area, and intensive grasslands tend to be converted into extensive grasslands. Climate change and technological progress increase crop productivity, and consequently, total gross margin increases. The impact of climate change might get stronger toward the end of the century which is beyond the scope of the investigations presented here. The impact of climate change might thus switch from bringing net benefits in the short to medium term to bringing net losses for the area investigated in the long run.global change, regional model, climate change, agricultural policy scenarios, agricultural land use, Agricultural and Food Policy, Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

Irrigation Water Use in the Danube Basin: Facts, Governance and Approach to Sustainability

In this paper we assess the irrigation water use in the Danube Basin, highlight its complexity, identify future challenges and show the relevance for a basin-wide integrative irrigation management plan as part of a more holistic and coherent resource policy. In this sense, we base our integrative regional assessments of the water-food-energy nexus on insights from an extensive review and scientific synthesis of the Danube Basin and region, experimental field studies on irrigation and agricultural water consumption, current irrigation related policies and strategies in most of the Danube countries, and regulatory frameworks on resources at European Union level. We show that a basin-wide integrative approach to water use calls for the evaluation of resource use trade-offs, resonates with the need for transdisciplinary research in addressing nexus challenges and supports integrative resource management policies within which irrigation water use represents an inherent part. In this respect, we propose a transdisciplinary research framework on sustainable irrigation water use in the Danube Basin. The findings were summarized into four interconnected problem areas in the Danube Basin, which directly or indirectly relate to irrigation strategies and resource policies: prospective water scarcity and Danube water connectedness, agricultural droughts, present and future level of potential yields, and science based proactive decision-making

The importance of spatial, temporal and social scales in Integrated modeling; simulating the effects of climatic change on district- and farm-level decision making in the Danube catchment area

Many scientific publications discussing the effects of climate change on the agricultural system express these in terms of changing crop production at coarse spatial and temporal scales. But in agro-economy, where crop production is the result of the interaction between bio-physical and management components, the temporal drivers operate at much smaller resolutions. Climate change affects the agricultural system via the interrelated, bio-physical layers of air, water, soil and crops. Furthermore, it influences the farm-system manager in their choice of their crops. In our paper the main question is how to deal systematically with the different time extents and time resolutions when studying agricultural management impacts due to climatic change. Agent based modeling offers an elegant way to tackle such challenges, where agents represent simplified farm managers. The agricultural management model is dynamically connected to a regional agro-economic model, a ground water model, a crop growth model and a soil model. Hence, we endogonize climatic change and make its effects a (risk)-factor in the agents considerations along different temporal scales. This paper reports on the fundamental issues regarding use of different temporal modeling scales with several clear practical examples

Impact of CAP reform on agricultural production in the German federal state Baden-Wurttemberg: Scenario calculations with the regional model ACRE

ACRE is an Agro-eConomic model for agricultural pRoduction at rEgional level. Based on an extension of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) this model was developed as a decision tool for politics with respect to questions of global change- and political scenarios. ACRE was applied in two interdisciplinary projects for simulation of agricultural production in two German river basins. Currently, the model was extended to calculate agricultural production for the federal state Baden-Württemberg in South West Germany. This paper introduces the results of CAP scenario calculations with the regional model ACRE for Baden-Württemberg

ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE IN GERMANY - A RICARDIAN ANALYSIS

To assess the impact of climate change on agriculture in German districts, a Ricardian analysis accounting for spatial autocorrelation is used. The analysis relies on land rental prices from agricultural statistics and climate data from the network of German weather observation stations. The results of the cross-sectional analysis show a significant correlation between land rents and increasing mean temperatures, as well as (except for East Germany) a significant increase of land rents along with declining spring precipitation. Next, climate data from the regional climate model REMO are used to calculate local land rent changes under different IPCC scenarios for a time horizon between 2011 and 2040. The overall result is an increase in land rents which relates to 5-6 % of net German agricultural income. In West Germany the increase in land rents rises from the north to south, because of the higher temperature increases in the South of Germany. East Germany shows a greater increase in land rents than West Germany, due to the presently more unfavourable climatic water balance which profits from the increase in spring precipitation. However, agricultural income in Germany might decrease in the long run, when the changes in the climatic conditions will be more severe than those simulated in this study. We plan to extend and improve the research in this field. Different approaches to consider soil qualities at district level shall be compared. In order to understand farmers’ adaptation to different climatic conditions multinomial logit models will be used to investigate how German land use structures depend on the climate. Furthermore, a typology of related transaction costs shall be devised. This will allow the identification of those regions where the adaptation needs and the corresponding costs are likely to be relatively high

An Agro-Economic Production Model for a Middle European River Basin - First Results of CAP Reform Scenario Calculations

ACRE is an Agro-eConomic model for agricultural pRoduction on rEgional level. Based on an extension of Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) this model was developed as a decision tool for politics with respect to questions of global change- and political scenarios. Currently, ACRE is applied in the RIVERTWIN-Neckar project and politic scenarios of the CAP reform 2003 were calculated. This paper introduces ACRE, its theoretical framework, and the first results of political scenario calculations, which where done for the Neckar river basin

The importance of spatial, temporal and social scales in Integrated modeling; simulating the effects of climatic change on district- and farm-level decision making in the Danube catchment area

Many scientific publications discussing the effects of climate change on the agricultural system express these in terms of changing crop production at coarse spatial and temporal scales. But in agro-economy, where crop production is the result of the interaction between bio-physical and management components, the temporal drivers operate at much smaller resolutions. Climate change affects the agricultural system via the interrelated, bio-physical layers of air, water, soil and crops. Furthermore, it influences the farm-system manager in their choice of their crops. In our paper the main question is how to deal systematically with the different time extents and time resolutions when studying agricultural management impacts due to climatic change. Agent based modeling offers an elegant way to tackle such challenges, where agents represent simplified farm managers. The agricultural management model is dynamically connected to a regional agro-economic model, a ground water model, a crop growth model and a soil model. Hence, we endogonize climatic change and make its effects a (risk)-factor in the agents considerations along different temporal scales. This paper reports on the fundamental issues regarding use of different temporal modeling scales with several clear practical examples.Environmental Economics and Policy, Farm Management,